Previsão do cenário agrícola e produtivo do cultivo de cana-de-açúcar no Brasil
Considering the current population growth and the high demand for food and consequently energy, there is a need for clean and renewable sources, such as sugar cane, for that reason the study of the scenario of this crop was considered interesting to be done. The objective of this work was to conduct...
| Autor principal: | Cadamuro, José Guilherme Botaro |
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| Formato: | Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação) |
| Idioma: | Português |
| Publicado em: |
Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná
2020
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: |
http://repositorio.utfpr.edu.br/jspui/handle/1/13048 |
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| Resumo: |
Considering the current population growth and the high demand for food and consequently energy, there is a need for clean and renewable sources, such as sugar cane, for that reason the study of the scenario of this crop was considered interesting to be done. The objective of this work was to conduct a study of the production areas and data related to sugarcane cultivation and its products in Brazil, through mathematical modeling to know the historical and current scenario as well as to obtain future forecasts. For that, first, we explained the supply chain and the sugarcane, sugar and ethanol markets, and we explained about concepts of forecasts and errors. Subsequently, we collected data related to planted area and sugarcane crop production and the prices of its byproducts in the state of São Paulo at sites such as the National Supply Company (CONAB), Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Finally, the data were processed using the Microsoft® Excel and NNQ programs and the next twelve-month forecast was obtained with the smallest errors, explaining the behavior of the results through the seasonality obtained. |
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